《大行報告》中金:年初至今逾1,500億人幣資金南下港股 推介包括增長、估值等四大投資主題
中金發表報告指,內地資金對港股關注度空前,年初至昨日(19日)內地資金持續通過滬港通流入港股,淨流入規模已經超過1,500億元人民幣。而當前支持港股的四大投資邏輯,包括增長、估值、流動性及壯大的新經濟板塊。該行稱中國增長仍在復蘇,今年盈利維持高增長,該行自上而下估計香港中資股今年將實現1520%的盈利增長,港股市場相對更看重盈利;估值方面,香港市場估值依然比A股具備估值優勢,A/H上市公司的港股折價依然高達約37%,同類行業的對比也顯示多數行業港股比A股估值要低。
該行又指,流動性方面港股更受國際流動性影響,當前內地政策逐步「轉彎」,海外因為疫情防控相對滯後、政策依然相對寬鬆,該行的資金流向監測顯示,海外資金已經連續20周流入香港。此外,壯大的新經濟板塊方面,內地新經濟類公司近年持續在香港上市,也對內地資金形成吸引力,近期因為事件衝擊部分中資龍頭股估值被壓制歷史最低水平,也吸引了部分內地資金南下。
中金提到,深港通開通時曾經基於當時的情況估算,互聯互通開通後5年至10年內從內地淨流入港股的資金平均可以達到每年2,000億至4,000億人民幣的規模。從2014年滬港通開通至今,內地資金累積南下1.66萬億元人民幣,基本與該行預期的範圍一致。而去年內地資金南下速度明顯提速,全年資金南下達到超6,000億元,年初至今公募基金發行繼續保持較快速度,募集資金已超2,000億元,大部分都能投資港股(港股比例0%至50%)。
考慮到保險、私募以及其他類機構投資者的資金流入潛力,且內地投資者對港股了解已經大幅提升,該行估計在港股估值保持吸引力的前提下,南下資金近年年均流入潛力可能維持在5,000億至6,000億元人民幣的高位。中長期來看,內地機構投資者在A股和港股之間的持倉比例可能會與兩邊的流通市值比例大致相匹配(目前比例大致是7比3)。
中金認為,當前港股可以從四條思路選股,包括優質互聯網及科技領域龍頭;A/H兩地上市港股大幅折價、大市值、估值偏低、基本面穩健或改善的港股;A股相對稀缺或在港股具備特色的獨特公司;及近期受事件影響估值大幅下降的龍頭藍籌公司。
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