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野村:壽險企業最壞時刻已過 但產險仍面臨挑戰
格隆匯 01-19 16:50

野村發表研究報吿預期,壽險企業的最壞時刻已經過去,但產險企業仍面臨挑戰,中國平保(2318.HK)因業務優質,仍屬野村長期心水股,同時,中國太平(0966.HK)、新華保險(1336.HK)、中國太保(2601.HK)及中國人壽(2628.HK)的風險回報吸引,全部給予買入評級。

野村報吿指出,2020年度,產險保費按年上升4%,意味第四季下跌10%,比第三季增長9%遜色。不過壽險市場表現則與預期相若,全年保費增長4%,即第四季下跌2%,而第三季表現持平。

報吿提到,新華保險及國壽去年度壽險保費分別上升15%及8%,表現優於同業,主要因為策略進取,以及保險代理人數增加,但兩間公司第四季保費分別下跌17%及3%。至於平保及中國太保則持續受壓,平保去年的首年保險收入便下跌了20%。

產險方面,中國財險(2328.HK)、平保及中國太保去年保費增長分別為0%、6%及11%,其中,第四季按季分別下跌12%、10%及1%。車險方面,平保及財險第四季保費分別下跌12%和10%。

野村估計,受惠於低基數,今年開門紅銷售會強勁復甦,預期平保、中國太平及中國太保開門紅的首年代理保費按年增長超過30%,惟國壽因基數高,表現只會持平。產險方面,野村估計,車險改革影響會延續至今年9月,全年保險增長約3%,比去年度的6%放緩,長遠而言,預計產險市場的供給側改革會深化,市場會更集中,領導者的市佔率將會提高。

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