大和:維持對中國證券行業正面評級 首選招商證券(6099.HK)
大和總研發表研究報吿指,中國資本市場改革的主要目標是促進國內金融週期發展,維持對中國證券行業正面評級。將招商證券(6099.HK)評級由優於大市上調至買入,目標價由11港元上調至17港元;將中信證券(6030.HK)股目標價由26港元上調至27港元,維持買入評級;以及將中信建投證券(6066.HK)目標價由15港元上調至15.5港元,維持買入評級。
該行認為,資本市場改革很可能成為2021年行業盈利和估值提升的最大催化劑,認為監管機構加強資本市場改革的主要目標是建立有競爭力的證券交易所。該行預計,2020-21年H股上市證券公司的平均盈利將增長35-40%。
大和又認為,招商證券以高資產淨值人士為中心的財富管理策略,將為公司提供可持續的優勢,公司去年首三季的經紀市佔率上升0.7個百分點至4.8%,佣金收入只按年跌2%,優於行業平均9%的跌幅。該行續指,去年第四季度A股日均成交量按年增長86%,將支持公司全年盈利增長強勁。
大和將招商證券2021-22年預測純利提高25-26%,維持為行業首選。
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