世茂集團(00813.HK)：土儲紅利加速兑現，多元業務激發動能，維持“買入”評級，目標價 43.53 港元
機構：西南證券
評級：買入
目標價：43.53 港元
事件：公司發佈未經審計的營運數據，2020 年累計合約銷售額為 3003 億元，同比增加 15.4%；累計合約銷售總面積為 1713 萬平方米，同比增加 16.9%；累計銷售均價 17536 元/平，同比僅小幅下降 1.2%，公司已超額完成全年銷售目標 3000 億。根據克而瑞榜單，公司排名較 2019 年再進一位，位居第八。? 土儲紅利加速兑現，前瞻佈局戰略領航，公司深耕戰略紅利區，釋放紅利，世茂港珠澳口岸城於 9 月首開，截至 12 月銷售額達 36 億；深圳世茂深港國際中心，截至 12 月銷售額達 50 億；江門世茂碧海銀湖，截至 12 月銷售額達 30 億。世茂集團旗下世茂海峽公司規模化發展取得進一步突破，截至 2020 年 9 月 30日，公司佈局 9 省市近 300 盤，可售貨值近 5000 億，土地儲備超 2000 萬平方米。
多元戰略激活內生增量，物管商業酒店齊增長。公司於 2020 年正式啟動“大飛機戰略”：以地產開發為核心，以商娛、酒店、物業及金融為堅實雙翼。物管板塊全速駛入資本賽道，10 月 31 日，世茂服務於港交所成功掛牌上市，2020H1世茂服務實現營業收入 17 億，較上年同期增長 85%，實現淨利潤 3 億，同比增長 134%，在管面積 1 億平，同比增長 127%，業務覆蓋全國 108 座城市。商業及主題娛樂板塊換擋提速，世茂旗下多地寫字樓項目整體出租率高達 95%，同時，與比利時藍精靈版權方 IMPS 攜手打造的亞太區首座藍精靈樂園在上半年開業，彰顯世茂主題娛樂板塊優越的 IP 整合及運營能力。酒店板塊逆勢而上提振市場信心，武漢江灘世茂凡象酒店等多家酒店如期開業，世茂港珠澳口岸城 5 家高端酒店等重要項目成功簽約。
盈利預測與評級。預計公司 2020-2022 年實現 EPS 分別為 3.87/4.81/5.86 元，考慮到公司在綜合開發和收併購方面能力凸顯、土儲一二線佔比高、銷售增速明顯領先同行，物業上市構成利好，應享受一定估值溢價，給予公司 2020 年業績 10 倍 PE，對應目標價 43.53 港元，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：地產銷售回款不及預期；竣工交付不及預期；物業上市不及預期等。
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