《大行报告》里昂一举降思考乐教育(01769.HK)评级至「跑输大市」 目标价下调至15.2元
里昂发展报告指,思考乐教育(01769.HK)上周五(15日)公布盈警後,公司举行投资者会议。由於折扣课程及学习中心扩张令利润率受压,公司预期收入增长放缓及盈利倒退。思考乐正急速扩张,并进军广东省以外市场,该行对思考乐的扩张策略看法更趋审慎,目标价由21.9元下调至15.2元,反映对扩张策略的忧虑,评级由「跑赢大市」一举降至「跑输大市」。
报告引述管理层称,思考乐2020财年收入增幅料5%,经调整纯利增长料不少於8,000万元人民币。意味2020财年下半年收入持平,纯利倒退逾60%。思考乐解释,在疫情及疫情之後,公司提供课程折扣及优惠以吸引及挽留学生,导致销售均价跌10%。另开设新学习中心亦压抑利润率。
里昂指思考乐管理层在深圳的执行力受到肯定,但该行对快速扩张及走出广东省的策略看法审慎,甚至管理层亦表示将紧密观察扩张策略。该行认为,不同地区课程差异,需要思考乐投入更大力度适应;区域性公司扩至全国经营往往甚具挑战。该行下调思考乐2020至2022财年收入预测各18%、19%及22%,下调同期盈测各45%、35%及34%,以反映该行下调销售均价预测及利润率受压。
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