《大行報告》里昂一舉降思考樂教育(01769.HK)評級至「跑輸大市」 目標價下調至15.2元
里昂發展報告指,思考樂教育(01769.HK)上周五(15日)公布盈警後,公司舉行投資者會議。由於折扣課程及學習中心擴張令利潤率受壓,公司預期收入增長放緩及盈利倒退。思考樂正急速擴張,並進軍廣東省以外市場,該行對思考樂的擴張策略看法更趨審慎,目標價由21.9元下調至15.2元,反映對擴張策略的憂慮,評級由「跑贏大市」一舉降至「跑輸大市」。
報告引述管理層稱,思考樂2020財年收入增幅料5%,經調整純利增長料不少於8,000萬元人民幣。意味2020財年下半年收入持平,純利倒退逾60%。思考樂解釋,在疫情及疫情之後,公司提供課程折扣及優惠以吸引及挽留學生,導致銷售均價跌10%。另開設新學習中心亦壓抑利潤率。
里昂指思考樂管理層在深圳的執行力受到肯定,但該行對快速擴張及走出廣東省的策略看法審慎,甚至管理層亦表示將緊密觀察擴張策略。該行認為,不同地區課程差異,需要思考樂投入更大力度適應;區域性公司擴至全國經營往往甚具挑戰。該行下調思考樂2020至2022財年收入預測各18%、19%及22%,下調同期盈測各45%、35%及34%,以反映該行下調銷售均價預測及利潤率受壓。
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