華虹半導體(01347.HK)4Q20業績前瞻：料4Q20收入有望超指引，看好未來三年收入增長，維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構：方正證券
評級：強烈推薦
受惠功率半導體及 CIS 需求提振，料 4Q20 收入有望超指引。
國產功率半導體市場 2Q20 以來維持旺盛，我們判斷這種高景氣度能持續到至少 4Q21，主要有 3 個原因：1）汽車電動化趨勢在 2021 年有望加速；2）疫情加速了國產替代；3）經濟復甦帶來工業及家電需求提高。而功率半導體佔到華虹整體營收約38%，功率高景氣有望讓華虹 8 寸產能持續滿載，甚至帶來 ASP提升、12 寸爬坡超預期的機會。 中低階 CIS 市場在 4Q20 也進入高景氣狀態，據 Omdia 報道，中低像素 CIS 在 2020 年末開始供不應求，部分廠家上調價格。受益於智能手機多攝方案升級和新能源車攝像頭數量提高，我們判斷該市場高景氣狀態有望持續，中低像素 CIS 目前是華虹 12 寸廠佔比過 50%的主要產品，高景氣度有望讓 12 寸線爬坡進度超預期。
12 寸廠擴產積極，看好未來三年收入增長。
公司 12 寸廠產能 4Q20 預估擴充至 20k wpm，2021 年預估產能翻倍，年底達到 40k wpm。考慮到大陸晶圓代工需求約佔全球22%，而目前大陸 foundry 市場佔比僅不到 10%，未來大陸純晶圓代工廠增長空間較大，預估華虹 12 寸有望未來三年持續擴產至 80k wpm，2023 年收入有望達到 16.6 億美金，相對 2020 年增長 74%，年複合增速有望達 20%。
DCF 估值：58.2 港元 我們通過 DCF 的方式計算出當前股價合理價值在 58.2 港元。 投資建議:公司是大陸特色工藝代工龍頭，受惠於功率半導體及 CIS 高景氣，8 寸持續滿載，12 寸擴產順利。我們預計公司 2020-2022年 實 現 收 入 9.58/11.84/14.38 億 美 元 ， 每 股 淨 資 產 為2.40/2.44/2.59 美元，對應當前市值的 PB 為 3.01、2.86、2.66 倍，重申“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示：擴產後折舊提高或使毛利率承壓；技術研發不及預期；行業競爭加劇；中美貿易摩擦加劇。
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