华虹半导体(01347.HK)4Q20业绩前瞻：料4Q20收入有望超指引，看好未来三年收入增长，维持“强烈推荐”评级
机构：方正证券
评级：强烈推荐
受惠功率半导体及 CIS 需求提振，料 4Q20 收入有望超指引。
国产功率半导体市场 2Q20 以来维持旺盛，我们判断这种高景气度能持续到至少 4Q21，主要有 3 个原因：1）汽车电动化趋势在 2021 年有望加速；2）疫情加速了国产替代；3）经济复苏带来工业及家电需求提高。而功率半导体占到华虹整体营收约38%，功率高景气有望让华虹 8 寸产能持续满载，甚至带来 ASP提升、12 寸爬坡超预期的机会。 中低阶 CIS 市场在 4Q20 也进入高景气状态，据 Omdia 报道，中低像素 CIS 在 2020 年末开始供不应求，部分厂家上调价格。受益于智能手机多摄方案升级和新能源车摄像头数量提高，我们判断该市场高景气状态有望持续，中低像素 CIS 目前是华虹 12 寸厂占比过 50%的主要产品，高景气度有望让 12 寸线爬坡进度超预期。
12 寸厂扩产积极，看好未来三年收入增长。
公司 12 寸厂产能 4Q20 预估扩充至 20k wpm，2021 年预估产能翻倍，年底达到 40k wpm。考虑到大陆晶圆代工需求约占全球22%，而目前大陆 foundry 市场占比仅不到 10%，未来大陆纯晶圆代工厂增长空间较大，预估华虹 12 寸有望未来三年持续扩产至 80k wpm，2023 年收入有望达到 16.6 亿美金，相对 2020 年增长 74%，年复合增速有望达 20%。
DCF 估值：58.2 港元 我们通过 DCF 的方式计算出当前股价合理价值在 58.2 港元。 投资建议:公司是大陆特色工艺代工龙头，受惠于功率半导体及 CIS 高景气，8 寸持续满载，12 寸扩产顺利。我们预计公司 2020-2022年 实 现 收 入 9.58/11.84/14.38 亿 美 元 ， 每 股 净 资 产 为2.40/2.44/2.59 美元，对应当前市值的 PB 为 3.01、2.86、2.66 倍，重申“强烈推荐”评级。
风险提示：扩产后折旧提高或使毛利率承压；技术研发不及预期；行业竞争加剧；中美贸易摩擦加剧。
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