華潤置地(01109.HK)：銷售穩步增長，核心城市拿地佔九成，維持“買入”評級，目標價48.00 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：48.00 港元
投資要點
維持“買入”評級，目標價 48.00 港元：公司年末銷售加速，全年超額 9%完成銷售目標，銷售規模穩步增長。拿地上，公司保持一二線城市拿地力度，合理有序補充貨值。公司財務狀況保持穩健，處於三道紅線綠檔。另外，公司投資物業運營下半年加速恢復，全年租金收入符合預期，預計明後年開業速度將加快，預計 2021/2022 年投資物業收益為 151/174 億元，同比增長 16%/15%。我們預計公司 2020/2021 年的營業收入為 1729/2000 億元，同比增長 17%/16%；核心淨利潤為 244/276 億元，同比增長13%/13%。我們維持“買入”評級，目標價 48.00 港元，對應 2020/2021 年 PE 為 12/11倍，較現價有 55%的上升空間，2020E 股息收益率為 4.5%。
銷售穩步增長，目標完成度高：12 月單月公司實現銷售金額和麪積 391 億元和 95 萬平米，同比增長 147%和增長 6%。2020 全年公司實現累計銷售金額和麪積 2851 億元和 1419 萬平米，同比增長 18%和 7%，累計銷售均價為 20092 元/平米，全年銷售目標完成度達到 109%，高於行業平均水平。按區域分部，華北、華東、華南、華西、東北和華中銷售金額佔比分別為 19%、28%、28%、10%、8%、7%。
量入為出，補充土儲：全年公司共新增 69 個土地項目，新增土地儲備 GFA 為 1492萬平米，新增權益 GFA 為 1196 萬平米，對應權益比例為 80%。新增土地款項為 1379億元，平均土地成本 9245 元/平米，拿地成本提升主要源於一二線城市拿地佔比較高。公司有序補充土地儲備，全年新增土地款項佔銷售金額的比例為 48%。
核心城市拿地達九成：6 月以來公司拿地力度加大，6 至 12 月共獲取 47 幅土地。全年公司新進入嘉興、義烏、濟寧、紹興 4 個城市。公司在一二線及強三線城市拿地佔比達到 90%。
2020A 投資物業租金收入同比增長 5%，符合預期：下半年以來公司的投資物業租金收入均保持 10%以上的單月同比增速，累計增速持續增長。2020H2 成都萬象城二期、杭州東站萬象匯、寧波萬象匯、瀋陽長白萬象匯均如期開業。截至年末公司的在營商場將達到 64 個（42 個重資產+22 個輕資產）。預計未來兩年開業速度還將加快，預計到 2022 年公司的在營商場將達到 88 個。
風險提示：宏觀經濟增長放緩、行業限制政策加嚴、流動性收緊、公司銷售不及預期、人民幣貶值、租金收入不及預期。
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