十问十答思摩尔，高景气赛道的高壁垒龙头，维持“增持”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：增持
核心观点：
雾化陶瓷芯赛道景气度高。①新型烟草渗透率提升。特别国内市场发 展空间大（渗透率 1%对比英国 50%），品牌商跑马圈地。②雾化芯是重要环节，其中陶瓷芯体验好，新客户接受度高，有替代棉芯趋势。
思摩尔技术壁垒深厚。①思摩尔技术优势显著。产品口感好、还原度高；且一致性强，良品率高。主要因细节 know-how 掌握更好，根源在思摩尔战略眼光（较早重视研发）、试错基数（反馈规模大、同客户改 进产品），研发投入（20H1 研发费用占收入 5.1%）。②结合外部因素，客户粘性加深。内销龙头扩张期需要产品供应稳定，海外客户对思摩尔专利存在依赖，叠加重金申请 PMTA 时供应商是考核要素。
短期看，思摩尔有望高增。①国内客户快速增长。悦刻是市占率 63%的第一龙头，20Q1-3 收入同比增 93%；柚子 H2 加速跑马圈地，明年内销龙头有望高速增长。②海外客户有望回暖。口味烟等政策禁令使除 Juul 以外龙头份额提升，英美烟草营销拓展最积极而增速最高，明年趋势将维持，其他龙头预计也有恢复性增长，且 PMTA 政策催化集中度提升。③其他业务今年表现较弱，未来 APV 预计平稳增长，CBD 与 HNB 业务存在向上弹性，整体收入有望维持高增。 ? 长期看，思摩尔空间广阔。①收入端，新型烟草渗透率提升空间大（特别是中国），思摩尔有望凭技术壁垒实现份额提升。②盈利端，30%+净利率有向下可能，但自动化生产和供应链梳理可消化盈利压力。
盈利预测与投资建议。预计 20~22 年公司收入 105/152/203 亿元，同比增长 38%/44%/34%；归母净利同比增长 61%/47%/34%。参考可比公司 PE 和公司业绩增速，给予思摩尔 21 年 65 倍 PE 合理估值，对应合理价值 68.91 港元/股（使用港币汇率 0.83），维持“增持”评级。
风险提示。市场接受度不足，政策不确定性，技术专利风险
（本文除特殊注明外，使用货币均为人民币）
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