崑崙能源(00135.HK)：出售資產增值超出預期，聚焦天然氣銷售業務，維持”買入”評級，目標價9.36 港元
機構：國元國際
評級：買入
目標價：9.36 港元
投資要點
向國家管網出售資產增值率超出預期：
公司宣佈與國家管網集團訂立股權轉讓協議，擬出售持有的北京管道及大連 LNG 權益，基礎交易對價約 408.86 億元。北京管道公司、大連 LNG公司 2019 年歸屬崑崙能源的淨利潤 30.23 億元，增長 12.6%；2020 年首9 個月歸屬崑崙能源淨利潤 19.79 億元。崑崙能源應占出售資產的淨資產賬面值為 214.18 億元，此項交易增值 194.68 億元，增值率約為 91%，對應 2019 年市淨率約為 1.9 倍。
聚焦核心天然氣銷售業務，迎來價值重估：
公司預計將獲得 370 億元現金，約 50%將用於派發股利；約 40%將用於開拓天然氣終端銷售業務，做強做大；其餘約 10%將用於償還現有債務及一般營運用途。我們認為，資產出售增值收益超出預期，資產剝離後，公司將聚集核心天然氣終端銷售業務，集中發展城市燃氣、交通領域LNG 利用等業務，該核心業務的增長將帶來公司長期價值的重估。
冷冬保供將提升公司 LNG 加工與儲運板塊盈利：
公司保留了江蘇 LNG 和京唐 LNG 接收站。近期受寒潮影響，自2020年 11 月 15 日以來，江蘇 LNG 接收站累計接船量 16 船，天然氣單日氣化外輸量持續保持 2500 萬立方米以上，單日最大氣液外輸量達 4000 萬立方米；唐山 LNG 接收站於 2020 年 12 月 30 日管道外輸量提升 4200萬立方米/日，2020 年進入冬供季以來累計接船量達 19 船，平均日裝車量達到 240 車，月供應天然氣約 1.8 億立方米，實現翻番增長。
維持買入評級，提高目標價至 9.36 港元：
我們更新公司盈利預測並結合行業內可比公司估值情況，提高公司目標價至 9.36 港元，相當於 2021 年和 2022 年 12 倍和 11 倍 PE，目標價較現價有 28%上升空間，維持買入評級。
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