思摩爾國際(06969.HK)重大事件快評:核心客户擬上市,國內電子煙滲透率或加速提升,維持“買入”評級
機構:國信證券
評級:買入
事項:
2020 年 12 月 31 日,霧芯科技(悦刻)向美國證監會遞交招股説明書,其 2018、2019 和 2020 年前三季度收入分別為1.33、15.49、22.01 億元。截至 2020 年 9 月 30 日,公司擁有超過 5000 家線下專賣店和 10 萬+的分銷網點,覆蓋全國250 多個城市。
國信輕工觀點:
悦刻此次在美上市將進一步鞏固並提升其品牌形象,同時為其新品研發迭代、線下門店擴張注入充足資金。霧化電子煙的產品認知度和滲透率有望在以悦刻為代表的頭部品牌提速擴張的帶領下持續提升,進而拉動中游代工需求。作為全球最大的電子煙代工龍頭和悦刻的代工廠商,思摩爾國際的中長期業績的確定性和成長性將受益於行業發展。
評論:
上市以來回顧:疫情陰霾散去,線下市場迎來爆發,業績和關注度共同推動股價向好
1)上市早期受疫情影響,股價階段性下挫,納入港股通後內資持續買入。由於基數效應和疫情對國內外電子煙銷售的影響,公司 2020 上半年有效產能和收入利潤增速未能延續此前三位數的高增長。在短期業績增速下滑,PMTA 審核存在不確定性等風險因素的影響下思摩爾國際股價自 7 月 28 日高點持續下跌,並在 8-10 月間橫盤震盪。7 月 27 日和 8 月 17 日公司分別被納入深港通和滬港通,此後內資持續買入。截至 2021 年 1 月 12 日,港股通持股佔自由流通股股本比例達 24.22%。

2)各品牌線下開店加速,國內電子煙滲透率有望不斷提升。電子煙線上禁售令的實施使得各品牌方只能通過線下渠道擴張。悦刻 2020 年 1 月 11 日在上海開設了全球首家旗艦店,同時啟動了新零售“361”計劃,計劃在 2020-2022 年間 3年時間累計投入 6 億元開設 1 萬家線下門店。其餘品牌商如雪加、YOOZ 等也紛紛佈局加盟門店和終端零售渠道。但由於上半年疫情影響,線下門店開設進度受阻。線下渠道拓展實際上在三季度才開始加速。
悦刻 2020H1 煙彈累計銷售數量 0.63 億顆,2020 年 Q3 單季度煙彈銷售數量 0.62 億顆,開始顯著放量。按悦刻 62.6%市佔率,人均月消費 3-4 顆煙彈保守計算,國內電子煙用户約 1000 萬人,在 3.2 億煙民中滲透率約 3%。我們認為,隨着電子煙線下門店和用户數量增加,其產品曝光頻次的提升將促使更多潛在用户走上“感知-瞭解-購買決策”的路徑,進而推動電子煙在消費者羣體中的觸及和滲透率加速提升。

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