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中金:料2020年第四季度內銀淨利環比大幅改善
格隆匯 01-15 13:33

中金髮表報吿表示,預計2020年第四季度上市內銀淨利潤增速43.8%,較第三季度負增長3.7%大幅改善,推動全年淨利潤增速由負轉正。第四季度盈利增長主要受惠於規模擴張較快及信用成本明顯回落。

報吿指,去年第二及第三季度疫情影響尚不明朗,銀行機構基於預期減值損失模型顯著增加撥備計提,隨着第四季度形勢明朗化,撥備計提壓力環比下行,亦無需過分擔憂2021年資產質量對淨利潤的拖累。

報吿又預計,去年四季度上市銀行加大不良核銷處置,不良率可能有所回落,預計上市銀行去年四季度淨息差環比基本平穩,略有上升,主要由於貸款定價企穩回升。

中金認為,大幅改善的淨利潤增速會是銀行股行情啟動的催化劑,首推組合包括受惠於報表修復邏輯的興業銀行、光大銀行(6818.HK)、四大行AH股,以及受惠於新一輪業績及估值分化週期的平安銀行、常熟銀行、寧波銀行和招商銀行AH股。

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