融創中國(01918.HK)：去槓桿同時穩增速，實控人增持顯信心，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
多月創新高全年表現亮眼，大盤續銷依然強勁。2020年融創實現全口徑銷售金額5753億元，同比增長3.4%，對應銷售面積4102萬方，同比增長7.1%，銷售均價14024元/平，同比下降3.5%。上半年由於北方項目比例較高，公司推盤速度受疫情影響較大。疫情之後，8月至11月公司週轉提速，連續3個月銷售規模超過700億，體現出極強的規模增長爆發力。預計21年公司規模增速將重回2位數增長。
土儲資源充沛合理，拿地節奏迴歸穩定。公司在手未售土儲規模2.2萬億，未結算儲備3萬億，週轉速度加快資源依然豐富。且土儲結構持續優化，融創根據各地市場環境，形成了深耕廣佈局，深耕聚焦和區域輪耕等多種資源分配方式，擴大資源覆蓋市場範圍的同時也可以平衡風險。20年公司土地投資力度雖有所下降，但成果斐然，冰雪綜合體的拓展模式打開了華南市場同時為公司積累大量的優質資源。
實際控制人再次增持體現公司絕對價值。融創董事會主席孫宏斌於1月5日以2572萬港元在公開市場增持融創94萬股，這是孫宏斌在一周內第三次增持，三次合計增持564萬股，斥資1.53億港元。回顧孫宏斌在13年和16年的增持記錄，均為公司股價相對底部位置。此次增持，顯示了實控人對公司長期價值的信心。
20-22年業績分別為7.53元/股、7.69元/股、8.00元/股。預計20-21年核心淨利潤分別為300億元、329億元，歸母淨利潤為351億、359億元。公司從年初開始有意識的控制槓桿，加上貝殼上市的正面影響，預計公司有望實現跨越式降檔。15年以來公司股價對應核心利潤的平均估值水平約為6.0x，由此確定合理價值為38.62元人民幣/股，對應港幣為45.97港幣/股。維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。信貸政策環境收緊影響銷售及結算表現低於年初計劃。
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