龍湖集團(00960.HK)：全年銷售2706億同比增長12%，拿地權益金額大增43%，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
事件：1月11日，公司官網發佈2020年12月份銷售及新增項目簡報。
12月銷售金額同增40.5%，全年銷售穩步增長但增速放緩。12月公司實現銷售面積178.2萬方，同比增長63.9%；實現銷售金額278.1億元，同比增長40.5%；銷售均價15606.06元/平，同比降低14.3%。2020全年，公司實現銷售面積1616.2萬平方米，同比增長13.5%；實現銷售金額2706.1億元，同比增長11.6%，超額完成20年銷售目標2600億元，近四年銷售增速逐年下降；實現銷售均價16743.60元/平方米，同比降低1.7%。
年末拿地加速，全年權益拿地金額1060億大增43%。公司12月新增項目18個，計容建面220.8萬方，同比增長234.1%；權益建面170.3萬方，同比增長229.6%；權益金額166.9億元，同比增長414.8%；年末土儲節奏顯著加快。2020全年累計新增土儲計容建面2070.8萬方，同比增長78.9%；權益建面1546.3萬方，同比增長54.1%；權益金額1060.34億元，同比增長43.1%。全年權益比74.7%，較去年下降12個百分點。全年單位地價6857.36元/平，同比下降7.1%，地貨比41.0%，同比下降2.4pct。
12月土儲聚焦京津冀和遼中南城市羣二線城市。公司12月新增項目主要分佈城市及計容建面佔比分別為：瀋陽（14.39%）、廣州（12.76%）、濟南（9.40%）、天津（8.93%）、蘭州（7.81%）；一二三線計容建面佔比分別為19.37%、73.81%、6.82%，且主要分佈在京津冀城市羣（20.45%）、遼中南城市羣（19.67%）和粵港澳大灣區（12.76%）。公司2020全年累計新增土儲計容建面一二三線佔比分別為2.72%、77.55%和19.84%。
深耕TOD商業模式，穩健佈局商業主航道。公司12月新業4座商場，包括兩座TOD商場：濟南奧體天街和重慶金沙天街。2020全年在南京、成都、蘇州、西安、濟南、重慶6城共計新開10座商場，全國範圍內已開業商場數量達49座。
投資建議：我們預測公司20/21/22年收入增速為27.3%/21.4%/15.0%，歸母淨利潤為204/237/271億元，增速分別為11.4%/16.1%/14.3%。2020年動態PE為10.6x，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：房地產調控措施收緊超預期，疫情反覆影響超預期。
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