安踏體育(02020.HK)：安踏運營改善，FILA/迪桑特高增長，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
安踏品牌Q4流水低單位數增長，運營健康。2020年Q4流水低單位數增長，全年流水中單位數下滑。我們估算單Q4：1）分拆品牌來看，安踏大貨/兒童流水（全渠道）均為低單位數增長；2）分拆渠道來看，線上流水實現正增長，線下同比仍下滑。在運營質量上改善趨勢明顯：為了加速去化終端庫存，我們估計安踏品牌終端折扣同比加深2-3個點至7折左右。截至到12月底庫存恢復健康，我們估算安踏品牌線下庫銷比降至正常水平約5+，同時售罄率同比改善，我們估算安踏大貨線下售罄率同比改善約高個位數。當前DTC轉型計劃穩步推進，且快於原先預期。我們估算公司已經完成原計劃中80%+的店鋪DTC轉型，同時門店結構優化、零售平台搭建工作持續持續，為2021年的增長奠定良好基礎。
FILA/迪桑特Q4流水高基數下仍然實現25%-30%/80%+增長。1）FILA品牌2020年Q4流水同增25%~30%，全年流水中雙位數增長。我們估算單Q4：①分拆品牌來看：FILACore流水中雙位數增長，FILAKIDS流水增速超20%，FILAFusion流水增速超50%。②分拆渠道來看：電商實現70%+強勁增長。我們估算當前FILA品牌線下庫銷比6+，終端折扣同比加深2-3個點至當前7折+，正價折扣恢復到8.2-8.3，預計隨終端轉好不斷恢復。2）其他品牌Q4流水增速55%~60%，全年流水增35%~40%，其中迪桑特/KOLON表現尤為突出，估算Q4流水增速超80%/40%。我們預計迪桑特2020年全年收入能夠實現50%+增長，2021年冬奧會助力下有望再創佳績，長期來看門店有望達到300-500家（2019年末180+家，預計2020年會有正增加）。
我們預計2020年集團收入平穩增長。1）估算2020全年：我們認為安踏品牌保持平穩，FILA品牌收入有望實現雙位數增長。2）展望2021全年：我們預計安踏/FILA品牌能夠10%+/20%+增長。
Amer集團經營改善，中國區/電商表現突出。我們判斷Amer全球業務2020年H2運營改善明顯，DTC及中國區業務表現較優。全年來看：1）Amer旗下品牌冬季收入佔比65%左右，始祖鳥、所羅門品牌終端表現優於預期，電商/中國區業務增長尤為迅速；2）管理層嚴格控費提效，出售Precor資產改善現金基礎、優化業務配臵，我們預計2020H2合營公司在利潤層面將有正向貢獻，全年給安踏報表帶來虧損低於H1的7.3億，長期來看，Amer多品牌規劃清晰，有望持續增長。
盈利預測與投資建議。安踏集團作為全球運動鞋服龍頭之一，堅持“多品牌、全渠道、全覆蓋”戰略，整合Amer集團加速國際化，主品牌DTC轉型拓展增長空間。我們預計公司2020-2022年業績52.1/73.5/92.1億元，現價130.0港幣，對應2021年PE為40倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情持續的範圍及時間超過預期；終端需求下滑；多品牌及海外業務開展不順；人民幣匯率變動帶來業績波動。
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