互联网专题研究：我国互联网领域反垄断案例复盘及思考
机构：国信证券
国家对互联网领域的反垄断空前重视
预计平台经济反垄断指南会在一年内完成。2020年11月10日，市场监管总局发布了《关于平台经济领域的反垄断指南（征求意见稿）》，当天市场出现了较大的波动，恒生科技指数应声下跌5.2%，阿里巴巴、腾讯、美团三大互联网企业分别下跌了5.1%、4.4%和10.5%。相比反垄断法的修订，平台经济反垄断指南的制定程序比较简单，预计半年到一年左右可以公布。
国内互联网领域反垄断经典案例回顾
回顾我国历史上互联网领域的反垄断诉讼的经典案例，如“3Q大战”、人人诉百度案、互动百科诉百度垄断案等，原告大部分因经营主体范围难以界定而败诉。以舆论谴责，被告企业进行战略调整为主。诉讼过程中，对被告企业的股价表现和后续持续经营无明显影响。在《反垄断法》修订之前，缺乏互联网领域反垄断执法的配套规则，导致相关市场支配地位的认定具有很大的争议性。这在一定程度上反映了我国平台经济反垄断领域相关法律的缺失。
对标海外：股价短期阵痛，长期利好行业发展
2019年6月3日，美国众议院司法委员会反垄断小组宣布对数字竞争市场展开调查，Facebook、苹果、Amazon及Google股价分别下跌7.5%、1.1%、4.6%及6.1%。但长期来看，美股规范经营、具备核心竞争力的龙头科技公司股价表现依旧亮眼。自2019年6月以来，Facebook、苹果、亚马逊、Google股价分别上涨了56%、202%、84%及69%，同期纳斯达克指数上涨了78%。
投资建议
长期来看，反垄断有利于规范行业秩序，促进公平竞争，保证行业健康发展。首先，从政策层面，国家充分肯定了平台经济的价值，对互联网行业的态度为“鼓励与规范并重”。同时，国家也希望互联网平台企业切实践行以人民为中心的发展理念，主动承担更大的社会责任，在增强经济发展新动能、促进科技创新、维护公共利益、保障和改善民生等方面体现更多的作为、更多担当。
我们认为，预防和制止互联网平台经济领域垄断行为，有利于从优化竞争的角度促进行业的健康发展，不会对规范经营的行业的商业模式、竞争格局造成明显冲击。我们依旧看好国内互联网行业的未来发展，重点推荐多核驱动、核心竞争力明显的平台型企业腾讯控股、美团，继续维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
监管政策趋严的风险；宏观经济变动的风险；竞争格局恶化的风险；疫情影响全球经济的风险等。
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