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中教控股(00839.HK):重慶翻譯學院轉設獲批,獨立學院轉設持續推進,業績有望進一步增厚,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 01-14 11:28

機構:東吳證券

評級:買入

事件公吿

公司旗下獨立學院四川外國語大學重慶南方翻譯學院獲教育部批准轉設。公司於 1 月 12 日公吿,旗下獨立學院四川外國語大學重慶南方翻譯學院近日已經獲得教育部批准,轉設為民辦普通本科學校,轉設完成後學校將更名為重慶外語外事學院。

事件點評

獨立學院轉設完成後管理費減免,公司業績將得到提升。獨立學院轉設後,公司預計將支付給四川外國語大學一筆一次性的“分手費”,參考行業情況,金額約為重慶翻譯學院上年管理費的 5 倍不到,而公司每年需交給四川外國語大學的管理費則會逐年減少(目前公司給大校每年的管理費約佔學校收入的 10%-20%),利潤有望得到增厚。

轉設完成後學校的專業設置和招生將更加靈活,學額和學費均有望提升。截至 2020 年 10 月,重慶南方翻譯學院在校生 1.56 萬人,設有 11個學院和 8 個科研機構,提供 34 個普通本科課程,涵蓋外國語(11 種東方和西方外國語)、管理學、文學、傳媒、音樂和藝術學,轉設完成後,學校在專業的設置和招生方面靈活性更高,學額和學費都有望打開上升空間。

剩下兩所獨立學院轉設積極推動中,未來業績可期。除重慶南方翻譯學院外,公司旗下還有兩所獨立學院,分別為廣州松田學院和山東泉城學院,其中廣州松田學院也已獲得教育部同意,轉設也在積極推進過程中。

管理費有望得到大幅降低。

中教控股是我國民辦高校的龍頭企業,規模優勢明顯,運營能力領先。中教控股我國民辦高校的龍頭公司之一,截至 2020 年 11 月,公司運營位於中國六個省市的 7 所高等教育學校和 4 所職業教育學校,以及澳大利亞國王學院及英國里士滿大學,在校生人數規模達約 23.8 萬人。FY2020 實現營收 26.78 億元,同比增長 37.0%,實現調整後歸母淨利潤9.84 億元,同比增長 28.7%。

盈利預測與投資評級:我們認為公司業務領域政策風險相對較小,擴張路線清晰,未來規模化優勢或將進一步體現,同時公司積極推進旗下獨立學院轉設,經營效率和業績有望進一步提升。我們預測 FY2021-23公司歸母淨利潤為 12.09/15.18/17.99 億元,同比增速為 90.9%/ 25.6%/18.5%,12 日收盤價對應 21-23 年 PE 分別為 24/ 19/ 16 倍,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:招生不及預期,併購推進不及預期等。

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