新創建集團(00659.HK)：更多資產處置，專注核心業務，維持“買入”評級，目標價13.12港元
機構：招商銀行
評級：買入
目標價：13.12港元
新創建於 2021 年 1 月 12 日宣佈已同意以 65.33億港元出售環境業務主要資產。我們認為該交易對新創建有利，因為 1）環境業務之應占經營溢利（AOP）於18-20 財年下滑；2）退出估值遠高於市場平均水平，且有助提升公司之資產淨值；3）釋放資金以重新部署於核心業務和其他更高增長機會；4）精簡業務有助於縮小控股公司折價。維持買入評級，微調資產淨值預測和目標價至 13.12 港元。
以良好估值退出非核心業務。新創建已同意將其環境業務的兩個主要部分蘇伊士新創建和重慶德潤的全部股權出售給其長期合作伙伴蘇伊士。售價相當於蘇伊士新創建和德潤 20 財年 17.9 倍和 16.0 倍市盈率，遠高於行業平均水平。我們認為該交易可以增加新創建之資產淨值，因為我們估計這兩項業務 21 財年合併資產淨值僅為 48 億港元。
與專注於核心業務和高增長業務戰略保持一致。此次出售符合新創建優化業務組合的策略，將更多的精力放在核心業務（道路，保險，航空，建築）上，而在機會出現時退出非核心業務。近年來，集團已出售了香港巴士業務、天津港、北京首都國際機場（694 HK）、並減持了新輪渡的權益。
騰出資金進行新的投資（如收費公路）。我們估計，出售後，新創建 21 財年淨負債權益比率將從 24%降至 12%，遠低於管理層指引的 30%上限，而手頭現金將由148 億港元增加至 220 億港元。
維持買入評級，目標價 13.12 港元。我們將 21／22 財年每股收益預測分別下調6.0%／9.8%，以剔除已處置資產貢獻，同時保守假設所得款項沒有新投資。目標價由 12.78 港元微調至 13.12 港元，仍基於 21 財年預測資產淨值折讓 35%。自2020 年 10 月我們上次報吿以來股價已反彈 35%，估值仍然非常吸引，市淨率為0.67 倍（疫情前低點），股息收益率 7.3%（接近疫情前峯值），以及較 21 財年預測資產淨值折讓 60%。
潛在催化劑：進一步處置非核心資產；分拆（例如航空）；估值吸引的收購（例如收費公路）；中國收費公路的保護性政策（仍在討論中），以補償 2020 年 2 月 至 5 月的道路通行費豁免；中港邊境的重新開放和旅行限制的取消將推動富通保險增長。
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