瑞銀:看好微盟集團(02013.HK)SaaS長期增長前景,首予買入評級 目標價22港元
瑞銀日前發佈首次覆蓋微盟集團(02013.HK)研報,指出微盟集團是一家領先的企業SaaS服務商和精準營銷廣吿服務商,給予買入評級,目標價為22.00港元。
瑞銀認為,微盟集團將從中國企業加速數字化轉型中獲益。隨着更多商家轉向微信小程序,以獲得更便宜的私域流量,微盟集團的增長前景更加明顯。瑞銀認為,隨着微盟集團更快的SaaS擴展,不斷下降的流失率,以及SaaS延續和盈利能力以及不斷提高的業務協同效應將成為公司上升的催化劑。
瑞銀預計,受益於社交電商和微信小程序生態系統快速發展,預計從2020-2023年,微盟集團的SaaS銷售複合年增長率為41%,其中淨付費商户複合年增長率20%,ARPU複合年增長率為16%。瑞銀對微盟的戰略規劃持積極態度,微盟集團正在加強有針對性的營銷和SaaS產品,業務將拓展至更多的垂直行業。
微盟可以藉助微信流量的增長,進一步加強其在“廣吿+小程序”組合中的領先優勢。預計2020-23年的總賬單複合年增長率為28%,這是由廣吿商數量複合年增長率為12%和ARPU複合年增長率為15%推動的。
瑞銀認為,隨着微盟集團SaaS業務規模的擴大,毛利率將在2023年逐漸恢復到55%。考慮到微盟對技術的大量投資,預計SaaS業務的運營虧損將在近期擴大。成本隨着時間推移而逐漸收窄,我們預計2023年SaaS業務的營業利潤獲得增長,經營溢利率增長至15%。
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