丘鈦科技(01478.HK)：2020年出貨量數據點評，給予“買入”評級
機構：東北證券
評級：買入
事件：
公司近期公佈2020年12月主營產品銷售數量數據，單月攝像頭模組出貨量3,720萬件，同比下降1.3%，指紋識別模組出貨量1,030萬件，同比增長6.3%。
攝像頭模組全年銷售數量合計3.92億件，同比下滑3.34%。受疫情下手機出貨量下滑及手機供應鏈中重要零部件供貨短缺影響，公司全年攝像頭模組出貨量3.92億件，同比下滑3.34%。其中3200萬像素及以上的攝像頭模組出貨量約1億件，佔攝像頭模組出貨量的26%，高於公司此前25%的出貨指引。我們預計2021年手機零部件供應鏈將逐步恢復供應能力，攝像頭模組銷量將回到正軌。公司佈局高端製造領域，在光學防抖、多倍變焦、潛望式等多方面加大研發投入，隨着市場對手機模組配置需求的提升，公司在高階攝像頭模組出貨量上仍有較大提升空間。
指紋模組全年銷售數量合計0.92億件，同比下滑9.74%。受疫情下手機出貨量下滑及手機供應鏈中重要零部件供貨短缺影響，公司全年指紋模組出貨量0.92億件，同比下滑9.74%。其中屏下指紋模組出貨量0.45億件，佔指紋模組出貨量的49%。屏下指紋模組出貨量較去年有所下滑，我們認為與超薄屏下指紋滲透率不及預期有關。指紋識別作為手機移動支付和安全解鎖應用方面的技術，已經成為中高端手機的重要配置。公司目前已覆蓋全球主要安卓智能手機品牌客户，隨着手機銷量回暖，指紋模組銷售數量預計將恢復增長。
車載攝像頭模組、AIoT未來可期。受益ADAS滲透率提升，每輛車裝配的攝像頭數量大幅增加，公司與車廠長期保持良好合作關係，我們預計在ADAS需求的爆發下，公司銷量將持續增長。此外，隨着5G的快速發展，用户對AIoT人機交互的需求加大，攝像頭作為機器的眼睛，應用領域廣泛。公司大力佈局該領域，市場份額有望持續提高。
給予“買入”評級。我們預計2020-2022年EPS為0.63/0.83/0.92元，對應0.74/0.98/1.08港元，對應PE為17.91/13.74/12.38倍，參考公司歷史PE中樞，給予公司2021年20倍PE，首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：產品銷量不及預期，行業景氣度下行，盈利預測不達預期。
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