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《大行報告》中金:中海油(00883.HK)近三月跑輸國際同業四成 供長線買入機會
阿思達克 01-13 11:37
中金近日發表報告表示,近兩周從港股通的流向來看,資金更多的從中石化(00386.HK)流入中海油(0883.HK),中海油看到明顯南下資金的增持。同時,近期來自指數調整等方面的風險雖然並不能完全排除,但是相較一個月之前,風險因素降低了不少。從最近三個月來看,對比國際同行,中海油股價平均跑輸43.3%,在疫苗逐步推廣,全球需求復蘇的背景下,市場對於今年油價預期較過去一個季度變得更為樂觀,該行認為股價被市場低估,是良好的長線基金入場的機會。

該行指,維持中海油2020年盈利預測不變,考慮到2021年更樂觀的油價假設,上調對其2021年每股盈利預測27%至1.01元人民幣,並引入2022年每股盈利預測1.12元人民幣。基於自由現金流估值法,中金維持中海油目標價10.3港元,較當前股價存在45%上行空間,對應2021年市淨率0.9倍,維持「跑贏行業」評級。

中金預計中海油2020財年每桶油當量成本可以控制在27美元/桶當量左右,同時,在結構性降本提效和油價回升的帶動下,該行預計2021財年完全成本漲幅有限,在成本控制上有望繼續超出市場的預期。

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