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《大行报告》摩通调整燃气股目标价 首选润燃(01193.HK)
阿思达克 01-13 10:05
摩根大通发表研究报告指,中国公用行业中天然气为最受欢迎的分类,净资产收益率超过15%,拥有正自由现金流及不断提升的股息率,於过去一年业内股份表现出现差异,新奥能源(02688.HK)表现跑赢华润燃气(01193.HK)及中国燃气(00384.HK)约35%,主要是由於其项目受疫情影响较小。

该行预计,今年形势将逆转,在冬季天然气需求及现金流状况恢复胜预期的情况下,润燃及中燃的收入将出现强劲反弹,认为短期股价催化剂将来自於供暖和商业用户对天然气的需求增加,以及潜在的并购,首选股份为润燃,其次为中国燃气及新奥能源。

摩通将华润燃气2021至2022每股盈利预测提升4%至6%,预期2020年度现金流达20亿元,可以进行大型收购,预测至2025年将每年收购价值约3亿至4亿元的新项目,目标价由45元上调至53.5元,予「增持」评级。

摩通又表示,比起新奥能源,更看好其母公司新奥股份(600803.SH),认为估值较低,市盈率仅14倍,但考虑到更高的利润率、更强劲的销量增长和现金流,亦将新奥能源目标价由95.5元上调至133元。该行指,冬季天然气需求增长约30%,当中中燃最能受惠,目标价由36元升至37.5元。

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