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晨星:亚洲股市或受盈利预测调高所支持
阿思达克 01-12 17:44
晨星亚洲股票研究总监陈丽子表示,虽然中美关系很可能持续紧张,并且对亚洲市场构成风险,但相信拜登当选总统後,美国所采取的多边外交政策会较易预测,减低市场不确定性。惟美国市场估值偏高可能为亚洲市场带来阻力,因为疫苗供应和接种率、美国持续至2024年的低利率,及进一步的财政刺激措施等多项正面因素已在股价反映。亚洲股票市场亦可能会受适度调高的盈利预测所支持。

於通讯服务和周期性消费行业方面,该行认为中国政府的反垄断方针对於以产品为基础的游戏公司而言影响甚微,但对於出现垄断行为的互联网公司则带来收紧监管的信号。阿里巴巴(09988.HK)的经营风险比京东(09618.HK)或腾讯(00700.HK)更负面,而对其财务造成的影响则取决於後续的执法行动。由於澳门博彩业去年基数较低,加上中国大陆与澳门政府实施刺激消费的政策,预计澳门博彩总收入将於2021年大幅反弹。行业首选股为腾讯、百度(BIDU.US)及澳博(00880.HK)。

在金融行业方面,随着政府向商界的支援期近尾声,关注不良贷款比率有机会回升,认为目前股价已反映市场对资产质素的担忧,因此对去年及今年全年的信贷成本预测维持不变。随着经济状况改善的迹象成为今年第一季度的主要催化剂,继续认为新加坡及香港银行股值得投资。首选股为工商银行(01398.HK)及华侨银行。

科技行业方面,该行预测智能手机竞争将在未来数季变得更激烈,忧虑智能手机的生产可能超出最终需求,导致在不久的将来出现库存调整。建议继续关注智能手机组件和半导体供应商的长期增长,这些供应商将会是5G技术普及的受益者。首选股为稳懋半导体、台积电及舜宇光学(02382.HK)。

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