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晨星:亞洲股市或受盈利預測調高所支持
阿思達克 01-12 17:44
晨星亞洲股票研究總監陳麗子表示,雖然中美關係很可能持續緊張,並且對亞洲市場構成風險,但相信拜登當選總統後,美國所採取的多邊外交政策會較易預測,減低市場不確定性。惟美國市場估值偏高可能為亞洲市場帶來阻力,因為疫苗供應和接種率、美國持續至2024年的低利率,及進一步的財政刺激措施等多項正面因素已在股價反映。亞洲股票市場亦可能會受適度調高的盈利預測所支持。

於通訊服務和週期性消費行業方面,該行認為中國政府的反壟斷方針對於以產品為基礎的遊戲公司而言影響甚微,但對於出現壟斷行為的互聯網公司則帶來收緊監管的信號。阿里巴巴(09988.HK)的經營風險比京東(09618.HK)或騰訊(00700.HK)更負面,而對其財務造成的影響則取決於後續的執法行動。由於澳門博彩業去年基數較低,加上中國大陸與澳門政府實施刺激消費的政策,預計澳門博彩總收入將於2021年大幅反彈。行業首選股為騰訊、百度(BIDU.US)及澳博(00880.HK)。

在金融行業方面,隨著政府向商界的支援期近尾聲,關注不良貸款比率有機會回升,認為目前股價已反映市場對資產質素的擔憂,因此對去年及今年全年的信貸成本預測維持不變。隨著經濟狀況改善的跡象成為今年第一季度的主要催化劑,繼續認為新加坡及香港銀行股值得投資。首選股為工商銀行(01398.HK)及華僑銀行。

科技行業方面,該行預測智能手機競爭將在未來數季變得更激烈,憂慮智能手機的生產可能超出最終需求,導致在不久的將來出現庫存調整。建議繼續關注智能手機組件和半導體供應商的長期增長,這些供應商將會是5G技術普及的受益者。首選股為穩懋半導體、台積電及舜宇光學(02382.HK)。

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