瑞士盈丰料今年美国大型科技股续造好 退出量宽机会微
瑞士盈丰银行投资管理副总监赵国江出席网上发布会时指,料今年全球经济复苏,不过今年上半年进展或不顺畅,而进展亦视乎疫苗接种、各地封城及商业信心回复速度等。他预计全球通胀将维持低水平,因为全球主要央行推「无限量宽」政策,不过暂时相信不会带动通胀,因为包括能源在内的产能仍处於过剩情况。
另外他又认为美国大型科技公司今年将继续造好,因为其平台效应难以复制,而参考TikTok的个案,证明美国以外科网公司难进入当地市场,考虑反垄断等的监管将越来越多,大型科网企业才有足够财力应付持久的法律战。此外他亦较看好医疗板块,一方面是因为估值吸引,另一方面看好相关企业具创新能力,如果新药获批增长则十分可观。
至於美股会否出现泡沫,他解释虽然现时美股估值高,但市场有闲置资金,加上过去多年从未试过在低利率环境下发生泡沫爆破情况,故认为要留意假如经济复苏强劲、令联储局需要收紧货币政策,就需要关注风险,不过他料今年退出量宽的机会很微。
出席同一场合的研究分析师李思卉指,由於去年基数较低,故料今年内地经济增长将达8-9%,而拜登当选意味出口关税方面压力减轻,加上受疫情影响内地工厂及出口市场份额均有所提升,故料人民币将继续升值。她又预期内地反垄断措施等将持续,但相信并非要打击大型科网企业发展,长远而言仍可鼓励到科技行业进步,至於美国要求中国公司退市,她认为中概股在港上市有助改善在流动性方面的风险。
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