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瑞士盈豐料今年美國大型科技股續造好 退出量寬機會微
阿思達克 01-12 17:05
瑞士盈豐銀行投資管理副總監趙國江出席網上發布會時指,料今年全球經濟復甦,不過今年上半年進展或不順暢,而進展亦視乎疫苗接種、各地封城及商業信心回復速度等。他預計全球通脹將維持低水平,因為全球主要央行推「無限量寬」政策,不過暫時相信不會帶動通脹,因為包括能源在內的產能仍處於過剩情況。

另外他又認為美國大型科技公司今年將繼續造好,因為其平台效應難以複製,而參考TikTok的個案,證明美國以外科網公司難進入當地市場,考慮反壟斷等的監管將越來越多,大型科網企業才有足夠財力應付持久的法律戰。此外他亦較看好醫療板塊,一方面是因為估值吸引,另一方面看好相關企業具創新能力,如果新藥獲批增長則十分可觀。

至於美股會否出現泡沫,他解釋雖然現時美股估值高,但市場有閒置資金,加上過去多年從未試過在低利率環境下發生泡沫爆破情況,故認為要留意假如經濟復甦強勁、令聯儲局需要收緊貨幣政策,就需要關注風險,不過他料今年退出量寬的機會很微。

出席同一場合的研究分析師李思卉指,由於去年基數較低,故料今年內地經濟增長將達8-9%,而拜登當選意味出口關稅方面壓力減輕,加上受疫情影響內地工廠及出口市場份額均有所提升,故料人民幣將繼續升值。她又預期內地反壟斷措施等將持續,但相信並非要打擊大型科網企業發展,長遠而言仍可鼓勵到科技行業進步,至於美國要求中國公司退市,她認為中概股在港上市有助改善在流動性方面的風險。

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