舜宇光學科技(02382.HK)2020年出貨量數據點評：光學升級不停歇，車載成像領域快速增長，給予“買入”評級，目標價224.70港元
機構：東北證券
評級：買入
目標價：224.70港元
事件：
公司近期公佈 2020 年 12 月出貨量數據，單月手機鏡頭出貨量 1.3 億顆，同比增長 2.53%；車載鏡頭出貨量 574 萬顆，同比增長 37.29%；手機攝像頭模組出貨量 0.45 億顆，同比下滑 23.93%。
點評：
手機鏡頭全年出貨量為 15.30 億顆，同比增長 13.9%，高於此前 10%的增長指引。手機鏡頭受益公司下游客户銷量回暖，出貨量增速高於指引。我們預計未來手機鏡頭出貨量增長將來自：（1）手機“前 1 後 4”設計滲透率提升；（2）行業集中度進一步提高；（3）手機銷量回暖。
手機攝像頭模組全年出貨量為 5.9 億顆，同比增長 9.69%，略低於此前10%的增長指引。受手機供應鏈中關鍵零部件缺貨影響，公司近兩個月出貨量均同比下滑，使手機攝像頭模組全年出貨量低於公司指引。隨着2021 年相關產業產能供需逐漸恢復平衡，5G 技術發展以及手機攝像頭規格技術的升級，公司在 3D、潛望式模組的佈局持續擴大，多攝模組預計加速滲透，攝像頭模組出貨量將恢復增長。
車載鏡頭全年出貨量為 0.56 億顆，同比增長 12.12%，大幅超越此前 5%的增長指引。在海外疫情波動，車廠一度暫停出貨情況下，公司全年車載鏡頭出貨量依舊高於公司全年指引。我們預計未來隨着國內外汽車行業的調整與復甦，車載鏡頭增長有望將穩步提升。此外，伴隨着自動駕駛相關的技術研發和市場需求，汽車 ADAS 滲透率持續提高。目前，大部分 ADAS 配置 5-8 個攝像頭，隨着 ADAS 的不斷升級以及向自動駕駛的演進，某些高端車型將配置 10 個以上的攝像頭。公司在車載鏡頭方面持續投入，產品已涵蓋車載攝像頭鏡頭、HUD、顯示大燈、激光雷達等，並與大客户長期保持良好合作。我們看好 ADAS 和自動駕駛發展前景，隨着技術和方案的不斷演進和升級，車載攝像頭潛力巨大。
給予“買入”評級。2020-2022 年 EPS 為 3.94/5.46/6.67 元，對應港幣 EPS為 4.64/6.42/7.85 港元，對應 PE 為 40.79/29.45/24.10 倍，參考公司歷史PE 中樞 35X，給予公司 2021 年 35 倍 PE，首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：產品銷量不及預期，行業景氣度下行，盈利預測不達預期。
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