《大行報告》美銀證券升中國金茂(00817.HK)評級至「買入」 降融創(01918.HK)至「中性」
美銀證券發表研報指,內房行業現時估值為今年預期市盈率6倍,低於歷史平均水平,反映利潤增長有壓力,主要由於行業利潤空間減少,以及當局「345」財務指標要求限制企業補充可售資源,但相信內房板塊仍有投資機會,預期任何利好消息都將引發估值反彈。
報告指,考慮到平均售價走勢疲軟但土地價格仍然高企,估計行業毛利率今年將跌2.5個百分點,並在2022財年再跌0.5個百分點,預期房地產開發業務放緩,發展商可能會轉移重點發展附屬業務,但認為價值釋放的影響未必會似去年分拆物管潮一樣大。另外,美銀亦提醒今年內房面臨大批債券到期,即較受債券市場宏觀風險的影響。
該行預計,去年市場新樓銷售量增長2%,令人驚喜,預計今年在高基數和更為中性的貨幣政策下,市場銷量將下降3%至4%,樓價則持平,預計前十大開發商的合約銷售額將平均增長8%至10%,規模較小的開發商平均增長10%至15%。
美銀稱仍看好優質開發商,將中國金茂(00817.HK)評級由「中性」升至「買入」;考慮到短期內盈利增長將放緩,將融創(01918.HK)評級由「買入」降至「中性」,首選萬科(02202.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、世茂(00813.HK)及旭輝(00884.HK)。
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