《大行報告》瑞銀升國壽(02628.HK)評級至「買入」 看好友邦(01299.HK)及中國平安(02318.HK)
瑞銀發表的研究報告指,2021年除自疫情復甦外,相信投資者將聚焦於內地保險行業線上業務模式及由政府帶領、覆蓋較廣及更可負擔的「惠民保」,繼續認為低端市場將更受數碼化及擠出效應所影響,將2021年新業務價值增長預測由12%升至14%,相信投資者願意付出估值溢價予差異化的業務模式:包括友邦(01299.HK)在內地的擴張,以及中國平安(02318.HK)的生態系統和技術。
該行認為線上線下產品重疊增加,而其分析顯示主要的線上平台長遠難以純線上形式銷售,而低端市場更受「惠民保」的擠出效應所影響,相信有強大的經紀及品牌的險企在定價上將較具韌性,一般可較線上產品溢價20-40%。
瑞銀的醫療健康團險則預期2019-2025年線上醫療市場收入的年複合增長將達35%,到2025年或有機會達800億元人民幣,相信內地險企會逐步將業務擴展至全方位健康管理解決方案,科技對整合健康生態十分重要,而較早開始投入的險企將有較好定位,包括是友邦及平安。該行數據顯示,平安的用戶使用健康管理服務比率較高。
該行繼續傾向友邦和平安,認為友邦區域擴張及產品多元化,而平安則是生態系統及科技龍頭;亦將眾安在線(06060.HK)評級由「沽售」升至「中性」,因為股價已自2020年高位下跌37%,而公司在健康險發展方面定位良好。另外,將中國人壽(02628.HK)評級升至「買入」,因股價自去年第四季已跑輸行業17%。(el/u) ~
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