郭思治: 慎防大市會漸呈高台整固及消化
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市昨(11日)先升後反覆,惟最後仍微升收市,恆指早段先高開125點至28,003點,其後再進一步升至28,176點方漸受規限,由於高台沽壓漸增,故市勢卒開始反覆,而恆指更一度倒跌84點至27,794點,末段略見後抽,恆指最後報收27908點,較上日升30點,全日總成交金額為2,541億元,經過昨天的升市,本月大市在先低後高之形態主導下,波幅已稍擴闊至1,097點,惟一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於六個交易日之內,故在本月餘下之交易日,技術上該有更大之波幅在後頭,即是說,只要先低後高之形態不變,大市或會候機再進一步上尋月內高位。
值得留意的是,近日熱炒之股份均於高台漸見反覆,如吉利汽車(00175.HK),信義光能(00968.HK),小米集團(01810.HK),農夫山泉(09633.HK)及思摩爾(06969.HK)等,均自高位回吐約10%,表示一股熾烈之炒風或開始放緩,另亦需留意10天線(27,341點)之支持,因10天線目前正以每天約152點之速度上升中,故只要大市作較明顯之反覆或回吐,技術上便會觸及10天線,從走勢上看,一旦恆指稍觸及10天線,可能代表整個大市會稍作整固,畢竟自去年12月22日低位25,998點開始之上升,至昨天高位28,176點止計,在約三周內,累積升幅已達2,178點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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