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郭明錤料iPhone镜头两年内无显着升级 舜宇光学(02382.HK)受惠苹果订单
阿思达克 01-11 10:53
着名苹果(AAPL.US)分析员郭明錤发表的报告预期,2022年iPhone镜头仍无显着升级,在具备成本优势的舜宇光学(02382.HK)扩产後,预测玉晶光的下行风险可能将随之加剧,若镜头产业的升级停滞挑战无结构性改善,则玉晶光的每股盈利可能在2021与2022年均无显着成长,甚至会衰退。

他预测大立光为提升产能利用率,将在今年上半年将iPhone中高阶镜头平均销售均价降约15-25%,届时玉晶光的订单比重、产能利用率与毛利率将直接受到影响,由於玉晶光过度依赖苹果订单,故无法找到非苹果订单来抵销价格竞争造成的压力。

他续指舜宇光学近期股价表现强劲并创历史新高,回应了该行早前对公司今年出货iPad 5P镜头与iPhone 7P镜头之预测,料公司将在2022年扩产Apple镜头产能至少50%以上,将进一步加剧对玉晶光的价格竞争压力。虽舜宇光学在2021年出货比重仍不高,iPhone 7P广角镜头与iPad 5P镜头分别占约10%与15-20%的出货比重。他预测若舜宇光学2021年出货Apple镜头顺利,则2022年将进一步扩产至少50%以上,届时大立光与玉晶光将面临来自具备成本优势舜宇光学的更激烈价格战。

他预测未来iPhone主要镜头供应商为大立光、玉晶光与舜宇光学,认为玉晶光是主要输家,大立光近期股价可能承受卖压但仍具长期投资价值,舜宇光学则可望因Apple订单而在未来3年内显着成长。

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