新東方在線(1797.HK)首次覆蓋報吿：另闢蹊徑搶佔下沉市場，K12業務高成長可期，給予“買入”評級
機構：開源證券
評級：買入
中國領先的在線教育服務商，首次覆蓋給予公司“買入”評級
公司為中國領先的綜合在線教育服務商。我們認為，在線教育行業景氣上行，K12在線教育市場受疫情催化持續擴容，下沉市場或成為未來主要增量貢獻者。公司大力發展東方優播業務，在下沉市場表現亮眼，疊加品牌和教研兩方面優勢，具備後發制人潛力。我們預測公司FY2021-FY2023年歸母淨利潤分別為-13.88/-12.29/-8.99億元，對應當前股本EPS分別為-1.39/-1.23/-0.90元，對應當前股價PS分別為13/8/5倍。首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
在線教育賽道百舸爭流，攻佔下沉市場或成突圍良機
互聯網技術賦能教育，帶來更靈活、便捷的學習方式，且家長對於教育的重視程度提升，四千億在線教育大市場應運而生。疫情期間的“網課潮”助推在線教育滲透率顯著提升，其中K12領域受益最為明顯，超1.7億的目標用户待挖掘價值大，行業天花板高。目前在線教育行業競爭格局仍高度分散，羣雄逐鹿，線下老牌機構涉獵線上，純線上新興機構逐步崛起，互聯網巨頭亦加大布局力度。其中，多數機構主要通過廣吿營銷、發放低價課等方式引流獲客，但可能面臨長期發展瓶頸。未來，下沉市場或將貢獻主要增量，低線城市用户已成為在線教育主要潛在用户，仍為藍海市場的低線城市有望成為各大在線教育機構突圍的戰場。
差異化定位搶佔K12下沉市場，“品牌+教研”優勢雙輪驅動
公司另闢蹊徑推出東方優播業務，通過差異化的OMO小班教學模式主攻下沉市場，成功滿足低線城市高收入人羣對優質教育資源的需求。根據東方優播官網的數據，截至2021年1月6日，東方優播已擁有282個校區，學員人數快速增長至超過600萬。此外，依託於母公司積澱多年的新東方品牌，同時積極通過地推、校企合作等線下推廣活動，公司的獲客成本低於同業競爭對手，有效解決了多數在線教育平台獲客成本高企的痛點。長遠來看，公司深耕教研、專注磨課，有望利用優質的教學質量和口碑，在長期的激烈競爭中脱穎而出。
風險提示：行業競爭加劇、K12業務拓展不及預期、獲客成本持續上升等。
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