《大行报告》汇丰降阿里美股(BABA.US)目标价至329美元 评级「买入」
汇丰研究发表报告,指阿里(09988.HK)将於2月或3月公布截至去年12月底止第三财季业绩,该行料收入按年升33%,经调整税息及摊销前盈利(EBITA)按年增长22%。汇丰称,其核心商务毛利倒退幅度或大於该行预先预期,主因低利润业务收入占比扩大(如天猫及高鑫零售等);淘宝升级及新业务相关投资,如直播、社区团购及淘宝特价版。随着阿里续为可持续增长投资,该行料毛利收缩趋势将维持数个季度。该行下调阿里美股(BABA.US)目标价,以现金流折现率计,由375美元降至329美元,评级维持「买入」。
该行称,阿里股价自去年高位累跌约30%,相信监管因素及市场对市占流失的忧虑已大致反映。以平台商品交易额(GMV)计,首三财季阿里市占扩张,达9,200亿元人民币,全财年目标逾1万亿元人民币,据该行估算,远多於京东(09618.HK)及拼多多(PDD.US)去年GMV数据。该行下调阿里2021及2022财年盈测分别3%及6%,但仍高於市场预计7%及1%。
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