永升生活服務(1995.HK)：收購優質龍頭物管，加強區域深耕，維持“買入”評級，目標價29.0港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
投資要點
11倍PE收購廣西彰泰服務65%股權：公司於1月7日收購目標公司彰泰服務65%股權，收購對價4.34億元（可調整）。彰泰服務以廣西為核心，佈局全國17城市，2020年位居中國物業服務百強企業第63位，目前在管面積超過780萬平米，已簽約面積超過2200萬平米，深耕桂林、南寧。彰泰服務承諾2020年淨利潤不低於6000萬元人民幣，預計將增厚公司2021年淨利潤近10%。
聚焦區域深耕打法具備優勢：公司擅長深耕區域，自2015年開始市場化外拓以來，公司在江蘇大區印證了打造品質服務標杆→深耕核心城市→輻射次核心城市模式的成功。2018年公司通過收購青島雅園、青島銀盛泰異地複製深耕策略並迅速進入當地排名前十，以品質服務為基、旭輝合作開發及國企合資公司持續賦能，實現收購基礎上的面向市場化二次擴張。彰泰集團是廣西排名前列的龍頭房企，旭輝控股於此收購同日亦公吿與彰泰集團成立合資公司佔比65%進行合作開發。此次收購目標公司彰泰服務在當地口碑、知名度領先，企業經營效率強為外拓奠定優質基礎。我們認為公司成體系的市場化打法可持續書寫廣西區域深耕策略的成功。
穩紮穩打邁向五年十倍目標，對應未來三年業績再翻兩番：按照公司上市時的五年十倍目標，截至2023年末公司在收入、利潤上較我們預計2020年末時點有197%、155%增長空間，簽約面積規模較公司20H1仍有182%增長空間。母公司項目儲備、第三方外拓實力對實現目標有強力保證。
收購優質龍頭物管，加強區域深耕，上調目標價至29港元：公司品質服務+區域深耕策略充分匹配了地方中小開發商資源稟賦與合作需求，在當前龍頭物管公司第三方外拓與下沉的趨勢下我們認為公司發展策略具備競爭優勢。我們調整盈利預測，預計公司的2020-2022年的營業收入分別為36.3、60.7及85.4億元人民幣，分別同比增長93.1%、67.3%和40.8%，歸母淨利潤分別為4.0、6.7和9.5億元人民幣，分別同比增長78.2%、67.7%和42.6%。維持“買入”評級，上調目標價至29港元，對應2020-2022年PE分別為91、56、40倍。
風險提示：業務擴張不及預期；物業管理滿意度降低；物業管理費收繳率降低；物業管理費提價受阻。
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