波司登(3998.HK)：公司2020/21財年前九個月品牌羽絨服零售表現靚麗，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：（本文如無特殊説明，貨幣單位均為人民幣）
公司公吿品牌羽絨服2020/21財年前九個月最新零售表現。主品牌波司登2020/21財年前九個月零售金額同比增長25%以上，其他品牌零售額同比增長40%以上，雖然經歷疫情衝擊，但公司品牌羽絨服板塊較上財年同期繼續保持穩健增長（2019/20財年主品牌波司登前九個月零售金額同比增長30%以上，其他品牌零售額同比增長40%以上）。考慮到公司2020/21上半財年主品牌波司登營收增長19.7%，雪中飛增長5.2%，冰潔增長2.1%，從前九個月主品牌波司登和其他品牌零售額增長看，進入旺季後，零售額實現高增長，這主要得益於公司聚焦主航道聚焦主品牌，不斷提升產品品質、時尚設計和科技功能，加速智能製造升級，着力推進全域數據中台建設，推動精準會員經營，推動線上線下全網全渠道融合，全面加快數智化轉型。
我們看好公司2020/21財年全年業績表現。首先，公司前九個月品牌羽絨服零售金額保持穩健增長，其次，2021年春節較晚，羽絨服銷售旺季拉長，同時上財年同期基數較低，2020年2-3月受疫情衝擊，公司品牌羽絨服業務線下門店閉店，按照往年經驗，羽絨服在春節到3月31日的業務佔比在10%左右。第三，根據國家氣候中心預測，受拉尼娜的影響，今年一月前後影響我國的冷空氣勢力會明顯變強，有望進一步帶動羽絨服銷售。第四，雖然受疫情影響，公司上一財年期末庫存有所增加，但通過上半財年反季銷售，庫存去化符合預期。最後，公司積極推進員工和外部第三方顧問公司激勵。
20/21-22/23財年預計EPS為人民幣0.14、0.17、0.21元/股。現價對應20/21財年市盈率26倍，參考可比公司平均估值，給予公司20/21財年30倍市盈率，合理價值5.06港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：匯率波動風險；商譽減值風險；經營風險。
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