中國利郎(1234.HK)中國利郎跟蹤點評：Q4流水恢復雙位數增長，電商高增線下穩健，維持“買入”評級
機構：浙商證券
評級：買入
報吿導讀
利郎公佈四季度流水，零售端銷售額同比雙位數增長，較Q3進一步提速。
投資要點
事件：利郎公佈四季度流水，單四季度零售額同比增長10%-15%，較Q35%-10%的增速進一步提速，由此全年流水降幅縮窄至10%-15%。
Q4電商雙十一增速亮眼，線下零售穩健，帶動流水雙位數增長。
上半年來看，受到疫情影響上半年零售額下滑30%-35%，但線上零售同比增長150%，實體店通過微信管理系統亦實現私域客户成交的飛速增長；線下來看，雖然H1零售端承壓，但一二級經銷商團隊數量穩定，渠道持續優化，整體數量較年初減少98家達到2717家，但購物中心門店進一步增加到768家，佔門店數量/面積28%/31%。值得注意的是，輕商務系列門店數量較年初淨減22家至268家，其中228家店鋪已由代銷轉為直營（收購將帶來5010萬費用在下半年體現），剩下40家仍由經銷商經營。
從三季度開始，終端客流的恢復帶來零售額同比增長5%-10%，同時折扣率恢復到新品8折、過季品5折狀態，體現出強勁的逐月復甦趨勢；四季度來看，十一假期期間受益降温及雙節，零售額增長幅度達到40%-50%，雙十一繼續發力，1-11日電商全網成交金額超過2億元，較去年雙十一（單日1.3億）增長55%，疊加Q4降温，由此雖由於疫情反覆影響部分地區零售恢復，但整體來看線下銷售規模與去年也有微增，帶來公司Q4整體10%-15%的零售增長。
盈利預測及估值：公司20年利用電商及年終福利會清理庫存，並減少2020秋訂單以消化春裝、降低2020秋冬訂貨會的預訂比例至70%-80%、增強補單；另外在下半年推動分銷商開設奧萊渠道（目前奧萊店已達到34家），與此同時雙十一高增，多管齊下疊加零售恢復，預期年底庫存已恢復到正常水準。我們預計20/21/22年歸母利潤6.56/8.15/9.16億元，同比增速-19%/+24%/+12%，對應PE8.5/6.9/6.1X，過去分紅比例持續維持在70%以上，對應20年股息率8%，低估值高分紅屬性明顯，“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情反覆影響消費信心、輕商務業務發展不暢。
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