民生教育(01569.HK):收購電大在線剩餘50%股權,21年業績增長可期,維持“買入”評級,目標價2.40港元
機構:華西證券
評級:買入
目標價:2.40港元
事件概述:收購電大在線剩餘 50%股權
2020 年 12 月 31 日,公司公吿稱以 4.1 億元收購電大在線剩餘 50%股權,2021 年 1 月 6 日,公司公吿稱已完成相關轉讓價款的支付從而將持有電大在線 100%股權。疊加此前 50%股權收購,公司合計支付對價 8.3億元,對應電大在線 2019 年業績的 PE 為 15 倍,收購估值相對合理。
分析判斷:增厚公司業績並增強在線業務實力
(1) 電大在線 2018/19/20Q1-3 收入為 7.93/8.13/5.94 億元、淨利潤為 5512/5479/4680 萬元,公司完成100%收購後有望在 2021 財年將其全面並表從而增厚公司業績。
(2) 電大在線作為領先的全國性遠程教育運營商,1)與全國 30 餘所知名高校合作,有 1800 多家學習中心,服務全國約 100 萬本專科學生;2)與 9 所開放大學開展合作辦學;3)2020 年全年累計培訓教師約 290 萬人次;4)旗下慕課網提供 3,000 多門課程,累計用户逾 2,000 萬人;5)組織實施網絡教育全國統一考試年均考量約 200 萬人次,課程考試和社會化考試年均考量約 460 萬人次。公司完成 100%收購後有望增強在線業務實力,實現線下線下融合發展、學歷教育向職業教育拓展。
投資建議:
我們分析,公司21 年業績有較大彈性:1)重慶人文科技學院 20 年進行教學評估、滇池學院轉設,均對人數增長有一定影響,21 年有望恢復增長,且 21 年有望提升學費;2)滇池轉設後有望節省管理費 4000 萬左右;3)奧鵬並表有望貢獻業績,維持20年營收11.91億元、經調整淨利4.8億元,上調21/22年營收從14.38/16.85億到 21.26/26.70 億元、經調整淨利從 5.96/6.91 億到 6.49/7.64 億元,目前 20/21/22PE 為 9/7/6 倍,維持“買入”評級,給予 21 年目標價 2.40 港幣(對應 21 年 13 倍 PE),較前期所給 20 年目標價 1.71 港幣上調 40%、主要系預期業績增長帶動。
風險提示
教育政策變動風險;自建、併購進程不及預期;招收學生數量少於預期;系統性風險。

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