中國利郎(01234.HK)：公司2020年下半年營運表現超預期，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
公司公吿 20Q4 及 2020 全年營運表現。公司預計 2020 全年利郎品牌按零售金額計算，同比下降 10%-15%，其中 20Q1 同比下降 40%-45%， 20Q2 同比下降 15%-20%，20Q3 同比增長 5-10%，20Q4 同比增長10%-15%。公司 2020 年下半年營運表現超預期。根據公司 2020 年中期業績發佈簡報，公司之前預期 2020 年下半年總零售額不低於中單位數增長，從 Q3 和 Q4 零售金額同比表現看超預期。我們認為除了受益於國內疫情趨好，消費信心回升，國慶期間服裝旺銷，包括 2020 年四季度全國天氣降温明顯，進一步帶動冬裝銷售外，還得益於，首先，產品方面，公司不斷提升時尚度和設計感；其次，渠道方面，公司增加在奧萊渠道開店，輕商務轉直營，積極推進新零售，雙十一全網銷售總額2.01 億元，同比增長 55%；最後，品牌推廣方面，公司於 11 月官宣韓寒為品牌全新代言人並啟動一系列品牌推廣活動。
我們看好公司 2021 年業績表現。（1）2021 年年初冷冬利於冬裝銷售，同時春節較晚使得服裝旺銷季拉長，加之公司 2020Q1 零售流水同比大幅下降 40-45%，2020Q2 同比下降 15%-20%，基數較低。（2）公司渠道庫存去化良好，終端平均折扣已恢復至正常水平。（3）公司 2020年預計門店數量和 2019 年相若，2021 年門店數量有望實現淨增加，同時積極推動新零售發展，線上業務收入佔比有望快速提升。（4）公司在“面向 Z 世代”的戰略指引下，宣佈韓寒為新代言人，有望煥發品牌活力，加強品牌在年輕消費者心中的品牌地位，開啟二次成長曲線。
20-22 年業績分別為 0.54/0.69/0.80 元/股。參考公司過去 3 年 PE（TTM）均值，給予公司 20 年 10xPE，人民幣/港幣匯率取 0.8335，對應合理價值 6.47 港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情反覆，渠道庫存壓力大，消費需求低迷等風險。
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