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《大行报告》大摩削澳门今年赌收预测10% 一举降美高梅中国评级至「减持」 调整博企目标价
阿思达克 01-08 16:31
摩根士丹利发表研究报告,料濠赌股今年上半年及下半年表现有别,上半年,旅客入境量料呆滞,与去年末季相若,为今年赌收及EBITDA预测带来向下重评压力。不过,至下半年,该行料届时市场对2022年濠赌股估算则或过低。该行建议今年首季倘见到濠赌股弱势,则趁机吸纳。在评估明年上行空间时,该行建议留意内地旅客需求、容量增加及赌牌续牌因素。

报告称,内地旅客需求正复苏,中国明年名义国内生产总值(GDP)料较2019年高出22%,但市场对明年澳门赌收预测仅较2019年水平高出4%,反映潜在上行空间。另博企成本正常化亦料改善毛利率。

扩容方面,参考2016年下半年及2018年上半年经验,大型新酒店开幕前六个月相关博企将跑赢大市。今年将迎来新一波新酒店开幕潮,包括上葡京、银河三期3A部分及伦敦人。此外,现时「三主三副」赌牌将於明年6月届满,对濠赌股估值带来压力。该行料六个赌牌将获延期三年,由澳门特区政府於今年中公布。

该行下调澳门今年赌收预测10%至1,890亿澳门元,相当於2019年的65%,主要考虑贵宾厅预测下调。该行一举下调美高梅中国(02282.HK)评级,由「增持」降至「减持」,因同业供应增加料蚕食其市占。该行偏好永利澳门(01128.HK)(多於美高梅中国)。该行偏好银娱(00027.HK)多於金沙中国(01928.HK);另在上葡京正式开幕前,维持予澳博(00880.HK)「增持」评级,属行业首选。详见另表。

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