《大行报告》大摩:阿里受美投资禁令传闻影响 降美股目标价至320美元
摩根士丹利发表报告表示,预测阿里巴巴(09988.HK)截至去年12月底止(2021财年)第三财季业绩,料收入录2,160亿人民币按年升33.8%,按季增长39.3%,估计非通用会计准则EBITDA录615亿人民币,按年升21.4%(按季增49.2%),EBITDA毛利率达28.5%,料非通用会计准则纯利录572亿人民币按年升17.7%(按季升16.1%)。
该行表示,维持对阿里巴巴美股(BABA.US)「增持」评级,将目标价由345美元降至320美元,此相当於预测2022财年非通用会计准则市盈率19倍。
据《彭博通讯社》引述消息透露,美国政府正考虑限制美国投资者投资阿里巴巴及腾讯(00700.HK),目前仍未有美方正式确证,但考虑到一旦落实相关美国投资禁令,或会潜在遭美国进行下市及剔出指数,触发相关资金抛售压力,对阿里巴巴构成不明朗因素。
大摩指,下调对阿里巴巴2021财年至2023财年非通用会计准则纯利预测1%、2%及2%,主要是下修毛利率,并指在行业中首选股未有列出阿里巴巴,而该行在内地互联网股首选为腾讯、美团(03690.HK)、拼多多(PDD.US)及哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)。
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