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中國利郎(01234.HK):Q4增速超預期,21年有望輕裝上陣,維持“買入”評級,目標價8.81港元
格隆匯 01-08 15:40

機構:華西證券

評級:買入

目標價:8.81港元

事件概述

公司公吿 2020Q4 LILANZ 產品零售金額同比增長 10%-15%,2020 年全年同比下降 10%-15%。

分析判斷:

公司 Q4 單季增速較 Q3(5-10%)進一步提升、超出預期,我們分析,主要得益於:(1)10 月入冷較早;

(2)雙十一在低基數背景下保持了較高增長,總成交額突破 2 億、同比增長 55%;(3)公司產品風格調整到位、對產品潮流度把握更加到位,且尋找到更適合的開店模型,即城鄉結合部二級 mall、實現了更高的週轉率水平。

展望 2021 年,我們分析:(1)公司有望重啟開店步伐,估計新開 100-200 家,且新開店以大店、奧萊店、輕商務店為主;(2)更換新代言人後有望加大營銷投入,突出“新商務”定位;(3)線上和奧萊渠道有望延續較高增長;(4)輕商務有望保持較快增長。

投資建議

考慮公司 Q4 超預期,將 20/21 年收入上調 7%/17%至 33.29/38.02 億元,但由於公司收回輕商務業務、費用壓力及去庫存壓力加大,可能一定程度上影響淨利率,將 20/21 淨利調整-3%/22%至 6.61/8.8 億元,公司領先於男裝行業復甦,且股息率較高,當前股價對應 20/21PE 僅 8/6 倍,維持買入評級,目標價 8.81HKD(對應21 年 10XPE)。

風險提示

疫情影響的不確定性;終端庫存高企風險;系統性風險。

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