《大行報告》大摩:阿里受美投資禁令傳聞影響 降美股目標價至320美元
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,預測阿里巴巴(09988.HK)截至去年12月底止(2021財年)第三財季業績,料收入錄2,160億人民幣按年升33.8%,按季增長39.3%,估計非通用會計準則EBITDA錄615億人民幣,按年升21.4%(按季增49.2%),EBITDA毛利率達28.5%,料非通用會計準則純利錄572億人民幣按年升17.7%(按季升16.1%)。
該行表示,維持對阿里巴巴美股(BABA.US)「增持」評級,將目標價由345美元降至320美元,此相當於預測2022財年非通用會計準則市盈率19倍。
據《彭博通訊社》引述消息透露,美國政府正考慮限制美國投資者投資阿里巴巴及騰訊(00700.HK),目前仍未有美方正式確證,但考慮到一旦落實相關美國投資禁令,或會潛在遭美國進行下市及剔出指數,觸發相關資金拋售壓力,對阿里巴巴構成不明朗因素。
大摩指,下調對阿里巴巴2021財年至2023財年非通用會計準則純利預測1%、2%及2%,主要是下修毛利率,並指在行業中首選股未有列出阿里巴巴,而該行在內地互聯網股首選為騰訊、美團(03690.HK)、拼多多(PDD.US)及嗶哩嗶哩(BILI.US)。
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