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《大行报告》瑞银:对地产发展商审慎 商业地产看法转正面
阿思达克 01-08 11:06
瑞银发表的研究报告指,2021年倾向选择写字楼收租股多於零售收租股,之後才是发展商,该行将写字楼收租股看法由「中性」升至「买入」,主要认为随着疫苗推出及经济复苏,料商业信心或改善,另外相信关口重开之後来自中资企业的需求将被释放,因为去年次季中环相关租赁活动仅占约两成,而2018-19年比例高达27-30%。此外该行继续认为零售收租股可受惠本地消费的弹性,而且旅游业消费亦有望复苏,而发展商方面受社会不确定性所拖累,而2021年预售供应亦较多,按年升98%,故将恒基地产(00012.HK)、长实集团(01113.HK)及信和置业(00083.HK)评级降至「沽售」。

该行维持对零售收租股看法正面,预期今年零售销售增长可达10%,认为本地消费情况可持续至2021年,另一方面澳门的零售销售亦自去年第三季反弹,认为假如关口有望在6月重开,旅客在港消费将缓慢复苏。该行不认为海南的免税行业将为香港带来威胁,因为香港有较广的产品和服务,加上人民币升值及接近大湾区等亦是优势。

该行对本地住宅市场展望稳定,认为自2019年社会不稳以来,不确定性仍持续,瑞银指出中原城市领先指数自去年3月以来反弹约1%,估计今年楼价将平稳,主要因为社会不稳加上预售供应显着增加。该行参考四组数据包括Google搜寻数据、无犯罪纪录证明书申请数据、强积金提取及二手楼放盘等数据分析,认为现时未见显着的人口转移,估计受惠住宅供应持续短缺、政策有机会松绑以及美国量宽等,楼价料可免於下行。(el/a) ~

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