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《大行報告》瑞銀:對地產發展商審慎 商業地產看法轉正面
阿思達克 01-08 11:06
瑞銀發表的研究報告指,2021年傾向選擇寫字樓收租股多於零售收租股,之後才是發展商,該行將寫字樓收租股看法由「中性」升至「買入」,主要認為隨著疫苗推出及經濟復甦,料商業信心或改善,另外相信關口重開之後來自中資企業的需求將被釋放,因為去年次季中環相關租賃活動僅佔約兩成,而2018-19年比例高達27-30%。此外該行繼續認為零售收租股可受惠本地消費的彈性,而且旅遊業消費亦有望復甦,而發展商方面受社會不確定性所拖累,而2021年預售供應亦較多,按年升98%,故將恆基地產(00012.HK)、長實集團(01113.HK)及信和置業(00083.HK)評級降至「沽售」。

該行維持對零售收租股看法正面,預期今年零售銷售增長可達10%,認為本地消費情況可持續至2021年,另一方面澳門的零售銷售亦自去年第三季反彈,認為假如關口有望在6月重開,旅客在港消費將緩慢復甦。該行不認為海南的免稅行業將為香港帶來威脅,因為香港有較廣的產品和服務,加上人民幣升值及接近大灣區等亦是優勢。

該行對本地住宅市場展望穩定,認為自2019年社會不穩以來,不確定性仍持續,瑞銀指出中原城市領先指數自去年3月以來反彈約1%,估計今年樓價將平穩,主要因為社會不穩加上預售供應顯著增加。該行參考四組數據包括Google搜尋數據、無犯罪紀錄證明書申請數據、強積金提取及二手樓放盤等數據分析,認為現時未見顯著的人口轉移,估計受惠住宅供應持續短缺、政策有機會鬆綁以及美國量寬等,樓價料可免於下行。(el/a) ~

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