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佳兆業集團(01638.HK):權益銷售破千億,超額完成年度目標,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 01-08 09:32

機構:國信證券

評級:買入

權益銷售破千億,超額完成年度目標

2020年12月,公司實現權益銷售金額167億元,同比增長28.1%;權益銷售面積95萬平方米,同比增長70.9%。2020年1-12月,公司實現累計權益銷售金額1069億元,同比增長21.3%,超額完成年度目標;累計權益銷售面積616萬平方米,同比增長32.8%。

深耕大灣區,土地儲備豐富

截至2020上半年末,公司擁有土地儲備總建築面積2680萬平方米(權益比例約為72%),其中約78%位於一線及重點二線城市,約52%位於大灣區華中、華西、環渤海、長三角分別佔總土儲面積約14%、13%、12%、9%,佈局結構合理。在公司近2700萬平方米的土地儲備中,約560萬平方米為舊改土儲,佔總土儲約21%,對應約2400億貨值,佔總貨值約41%。其中,公司舊改項目短期(1-2年)可轉化實現可售面積約212萬平方米、貨值約1053億元;中期(3-5年)可轉化實現可售面積約1130萬平方米、貨值約4388億元。除上述未來中短期可實現供地的舊改項目外,公司還擁有未納入土儲的舊改儲備佔地面積達近4000萬平方米,同比增長33%。

銷售高增,舊改持續發力,維持“買入”評級

公司銷售高增,舊改項目持續發力,合約銷售貢獻逐年提升,並且穩定貢獻結轉收入,目前公司舊改項目每年提供逾1/3的合約銷售及結轉收入。預計公司2020、2021年歸母核心淨利潤分別為59.7億、74.5億元,對應最新股本的核心EPS分別為0.98、1.22元,對應最新股價的PE分別為3.3、2.6X,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示

銷售不及預期、舊改轉化速度不及預期。

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