吉利汽車(00175.HK)：12月銷量勁增，2021目標銷量快速增長，維持“買入”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：買入
公吿要點：
12月吉利汽車銷量154202輛，同比+18.57%，環比+2.45%。2020年全年實現銷量1320217輛，同比-3.03%，完成本年銷量目標，並連續四年蟬聯中國品牌乘用車銷量冠軍。其中吉利星瑞銷量12077輛，帝豪家族31649輛，博越家族30066輛，領克家族24853輛，新能源車7171輛。吉利確定2021年銷量目標153萬輛，同比+15.91%。
12月份全系銷量高增長，領克品牌+吉利星鋭表現靚麗。
11月吉利汽車銷量150517輛，同比+5.08%，12月份同比漲幅擴大。吉利各品牌銷量環比均實現高增長，高端品牌領克及“家轎顛覆者”星鋭表現靚麗。領克品牌銷量同比+129.97%，環比+9.01%；吉利星瑞上市次月環比實現72.11%高增長；博越銷量維持高位，同比+23.09%，環比+15.04%；帝豪家族同比-14.49%，環比+4.20%。新能源車型銷量同比-27.57%，環比+5.01%。
剔除疫情影響2020表現較好，2021年目標銷量快速增長。
2020年吉利汽車前三月、前六月、前九月及全年銷量同比依次為-43.80%/-18.60%/-8.63%/-3.04%，降幅逐漸收窄。2020H1/H2銷量同比依次為-18.60%/+11.25%，下半年疫情影響逐步消退後，銷量增長迅速。此外，吉利確定2021年銷量目標為153萬輛，同比2020年+15.91%。
吉利12月下旬折扣率微幅增加。
吉利12月下旬車型算術平均折扣率8.83%，環比12月上旬+0.21pct。其中博越折扣率16.35%，環比+1.86pct；繽越折扣率7.62%，環比-0.80pct；繽瑞折扣率10.84%，環比+0.10pct；ICON折扣率3.33%，環比+0.95%；帝豪NB折扣率20.94%，環比+0.08pct；領克01折扣率7.23%，環比+0.71pct；星瑞無折扣。?盈利預測與投資評級：我們預測公司2020-2022年營業收入961.4/1053.0/1143.3億元，同比-2.0%/+9.5%/+8.6%，歸母淨利潤69.18/87.77/113.77億元，同比-15.8%/+26.9%/+29.6%，對應EPS為0.71/0.89/1.16元，對應PE為30.92/24.67/18.93倍。看好吉利未來業績迎來新一輪改善，維持吉利汽車“買入”評級。
風險提示：全球疫情控制低於預期；下游乘用車需求復甦低於預期；與沃爾沃合併協同效應低於預期。
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