禹洲集團(01628.HK)：銷售規模邁上新台階，土儲結構持續優化，給予“買入”評級，目標價3.90港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：3.90港元
首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價3.90港元：我們認為公司銷售增長快，持續重點佈局核心城市，拿地渠道多樣土地成本可控，派息穩定連續，物業拆分（原股東12/1比例送股+IPO形式）進一步提升回報率。預計公司2020-2022年的營業收入分別為313、379、446億元，同比增長35%、21%、18%。核心淨利潤為44、50、57億元，同比增長9%、14%、14%。首次覆蓋我們給予公司“買入”評級，目標價3.90港元，對應2020/2021年PE為4/3倍，相當於NAV折讓7%，對應當前股價還有44%的上漲空間。
土地儲備結構持續優化：公司的土儲結構不斷優化，體現在（1）全國佈局完善，2014年至今實現了從立足海西到“深耕長三角、發力大灣區、佈局全國六大區域”的轉變；（2）聚焦優質資產，深耕核心城市，提升拿地佔比，當前一二線城市土儲佔比超過80%；（3）拿地權益比例回升，2020年拿地比例超過60%；（4）通過收併購、合作、產業拿地等多元化拿地降低土地成本。2015年以來，公司共新增土儲2150萬平米，其中通過收併購拿地佔比達48%，收併購平均土地成本為招拍掛拿地平均成本的一半。
合約銷售高速有質量增長：公司過去幾年的銷售規模高速擴張，2016至2019年銷售金額CAGR達到48%，高於行業平均水平（43%）。2020年公司已提前完成千億銷售目標，全年銷售金額增長超過33%，顯著高於行業平均水平（11%）。我們認為高速增長的銷售規模為持續穩定的業績釋放提供了較高的確定性。另一方面，公司回款高效銷售權益正在回升，銷售增長有質量，我們預計公司2019至2022年的全口徑銷售金額CAGR為23%，權益銷售金額CAGR達到26%，處於行業領先水平。
業績穩健，派息豐厚，財務健康：公司的結轉收入和利潤保持穩健增長，我們認為公司多元化的拿地方式將一定程度上對沖招拍掛拿地毛利率下降的風險，大灣區舊改孵化、投資物業高速發展亦可能帶來較高的利潤貢獻。公司維持35%核心淨利潤的派息政策，2020E股息收益率達到13.7%。另外，公司的財務狀況穩定，融資渠道多樣，處於三道紅線黃檔，截至2020H1的淨負債率和平均融資成本分別為67.9%和7.2%。
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