14.6萬美元！摩根大通：比特幣還有進一步大幅升值潛力
投行摩根大通在最新發布的研報中指出，因爲比特幣目前在與黃金爭奪投資流量，從長期來看，比特幣可能有進一步大漲的潛力。
由尼古拉斯·潘尼吉爾佐格魯（Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou）帶領的摩根大通策略師團隊在研報中指出，要想匹敵黃金上市交易基金以及金條和金幣所反映出的黃金私人領域投資規模，使自身市值達到5,750億美元左右的水平，比特幣價格從理論上講須達到146,000美元，也就是當前水平的4.6倍。不過他們表示，這一前景取決於比特幣的波動性與黃金的波動性是否一致，以鼓勵更多的機構投資比特幣。他們認爲，這一過程需要一段時間。
“從長期來看，比特幣若能衝破黃金的包圍成爲獨樹一幟的‘替代’貨幣，意味着其有很大的上漲空間，”摩根大通的策略師在研報中指出。“但是，比特幣和黃金之間的波動性趨同不太可能很快出現。在我們看來，這是一個多年的過程。這意味着，上述14.6萬美元的比特幣理論目標價格應被視爲長期目標，不是今年的不可持續的價格目標。”
在上週末首次突破3.4萬美元之後，比特幣價格在週一一度大跌17%，創出自2020年3月以來的單日最大跌幅。這種巨幅波動提醒投資人，作爲全球最大的加密數字貨幣，在過去一年上漲了四倍多的比特幣的波動性極大。
從保羅·都鐸·瓊斯（Paul Tudor Jones）到斯科特·邁納德（Scott Minerd）和斯坦·德魯肯米勒（Stan Druckenmiller），更多的機構和知名投資者已開始向比特幣分配資金，或者表示願意這樣做。一些人認爲，在一個充斥着財政和貨幣刺激的世界裏，加密數字貨幣可以對衝美元疲軟和通脹風險；但也有一些人認爲，散戶投資者和跟風的量化基金正在催生一個不可持續的泡沫。
就目前而言，摩根大通認爲這種最大的加密數字貨幣面臨阻力，投機性多頭頭寸的積累和持有少量比特幣的投資錢包的增加等指標顯示出潛在的泡沫。
摩根大通的策略師指出：“新年伊始，比特幣的估值變得更加具有挑戰性。雖然我們不能排除當前的投機熱潮將進一步蔓延，將比特幣價格推高至5萬至10萬美元共識區間的可能性，但我們認爲，這種價格水平將證明是不可持續的。”
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
