盈選報告 | 漲價潮開啓，乳業股大漲，券商看好2021年全面性高景氣
乳業板塊今日集體大漲，“奶茅”伊利股份一度逼近漲停，市值歷史性地突破3000億人民幣。港股的乳業龍頭蒙牛乳業收漲7.32%，市值站上200億港幣，中國飛鶴收漲4.98%，盤中股價均創歷史新高，澳優收漲2.46%。提價預期下，券商全面看好乳業2021年的板塊性機會。
上遊原奶價格逼近歷史峯值
不考慮疫情影響，本輪原奶價格上漲已持續2年時間，生鮮乳價格從7月初的3.59元/公斤上漲至12月初的4.09元/公斤，漲幅13.93%，明顯超過市場大個位數的預期，已經接近2013年奶荒時期的歷史峯值。
券商普遍認爲漲價趨勢在今年還會延續。供給端，我國奶牛養殖門檻大幅提高，奶牛存欄量持續下滑。需求端，消費升級加上健康意識提升，生鮮乳使用量更高的白奶增速更快，白奶類消費持續旺盛，春節旺銷季期間仍將出現大面積缺貨。
下遊乳製品龍頭開始攜手漲價
在需求較好的情況下，成本轉移的邏輯更順，傳導路徑爲“減少促銷→恢復正價→提價→減少費用”。根據產業調研，四季度白奶促銷情況較少、部分市場階段性缺貨，近期主要品牌基礎白奶提價，伊利、蒙牛均於12月底對旗下基礎白奶產品進行提價，提價幅度分別爲3-5%、4-5%。
戴維斯雙擊來了！2021年乳業迎來高景氣
從2018年開始，價格戰導致乳企利潤率水平下降，但現在隨着需求改善和成本上漲，行業對利潤的訴求相對統一。根據歷史覆盤，奶價溫和上漲階段，行業龍頭有望攜手減促提價，價格戰有望趨緩，龍頭盈利能力持續釋放，業績彈性凸顯。前期壓制估值的競爭格局因素有望逐步減弱，乳業龍頭有望迎來估值和業績雙升。
在具體標的上，可以關注下遊競爭格局改善下進入利潤釋放階段、估值仍在低位的液奶雙強伊利股份、蒙牛乳業，奶粉板塊推薦市佔率穩健提升、新品推出加速增長的中國飛鶴，以及2021年將回歸正常增長的澳優。
參考研報
太平洋證券——乳製品：量價齊升，全面看好乳業2021年的板塊性機會
國盛證券——提價減促應對成本上行，競爭趨緩估值有望修復
華西證券——提價預期下看好2021年乳製品板塊投資機會
安信證券——乳業新週期，推薦伊利股份
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